CNN's latest
poll of likely Florida GOP primary voters shows some softness in Newt Gingrich's post SOuth Carolina surge. Overall, the poll indicates that Romney narrowly (and within the poll's margin of error) leads Gingrich, 38% to 36%. However, the poll's cross-tabs show Romney (32%) losing to Gingrich (38%) among those polled on Sunday (January 22), the day after Gingrich's South Carolina victory. That give Gingrich about 54% of the two-candidate, Romney-Gingrich support. Among those surveyed on Monday or Tuesday (January 23, 24), Romney wins 38% to 29%. That gives Romney about 57% of the Romney-Gingrich poll share.
The Google Inisghts search data I have been hawking (see
here, here, here, here, here, here, and here), which is only available through Monday (January 23), shows the start of a similar Gingrich decline. The time series of the relative web search volumes attracted by Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in Florida over the last two week are shown below.
If the CNN poll's dailies are, in fact, indicative of a downward Gingrich spiral in Florida, then I would expect to see continued relative decline in the public's interest in Gingrich expressed in web searches.
This dovetails nicely with my data-gathering mystery of the day: Gingrich has been tanking on Intrade over the last few hours (as of 5 pm, 1/25) -- both for winning Florida and for getting the nomination. I couldn't find anything in the news that would explain it. Do you think the CNN numbers would be enough? Or are gamblers reading your blog?
ReplyDeleteAs of January 24, the Romney/Gingrich split in Google Insights was 47/53, a 22 point drop for Gingrich over just two days. Today's Drudge Report is, essentially, a nice round-up of the reasons why. Conservative elites (Drudge, Coulter, Tyrell, DeLay) are starting to join Republican elites behind Romney and explicitly against Gingrich. Gingrich can dent Romney by pointing out his past moderation, but a chorus of right-wing stars credibly (and, frankly, correctly) pointing out how unreliably conservative and zany Gingrich has been over 30 years in public life is devastating to him.
DeleteAlso, if anyone reading this is getting rich on intrade, I would be very happy to offer private consulting at a very reasonable fee.
Romney back in front with the data up to January 28:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.google.com/insights/search/?hl=en-US#q=ron%20paul%2Cgingrich%2Cromney%2Csantorum&geo=US-FL&date=today%207-d&cmpt=q