As we head toward
the Supreme Court’s decision in the same-sex marriages cases consolidated in Obergefell v. Hodges later this spring, here are some
links to recent work in political science on the Supreme Court and the political
consequences of its decisions.
Abstract: Riker
famously theorized that political actors faced with suboptimal outcomes might
be able to garner a more desirable one by adding issues to the agenda. To date,
limited support for Riker’s theory of heresthetics exists, primarily consisting
of case studies and anecdotal evidence. We offer a systematic analysis of
heresthetical maneuvers in the context of Supreme Court decision making. We
argue justices who oppose a potential case outcome may add alternative issues
to the record in an effort to restructure the terms of debate. Data from
justices’ behavior during oral argument support Riker’s theory.
Abstract: Conventional
political science wisdom holds that contemporary American politics is
characterized by deep and profound partisan and ideological divisions.
Unanswered is the question of whether those divisions have spilled over into
threats to the legitimacy of American political institutions, such as the U.S.
Supreme Court. Since the Court is often intimately involved in making policy in
many issue areas that divide Americans—including the contested 2000
presidential election—it is reasonable to hypothesize that loyalty toward the
institution depends on policy and/or ideological agreement and partisanship.
Using data stretching from 1987 through 2005, the analysis reveals that Court
support among the American people has not declined, nor is it connected to
partisan and ideological identifications. Instead, support is embedded within a
larger set of relatively stable democratic values. Institutional legitimacy may
not be obdurate, but it does not seem to be caught up in the divisiveness that
characterizes so much of American politics—at least not at present.
Abstract: Numerous
studies have found that elite and popular preferences influence decision making
on the U.S. Supreme Court; yet, uncertainty remains about when, how, and why
the Court is constrained by external pressure. I argue the justices are
constrained, at least in part, because they fear nonimplementation of their
decisions. I test this theory by utilizing a recent study of judicial power,
which finds the Court enjoys greater implementation power in “vertical” cases
(those involving criminal and civil liability) than in “lateral” cases (all
others; e.g., those involving schools or government agencies). I find that
Court constraint is strongest in important lateral cases—those cases in which
implementation depends on support from nonjudicial actors. My findings suggest
that Supreme Court constraint is driven by the justices' fear of
nonimplementation and is, therefore, dependent on institutional context.
Abstract: One-dimensional
spatial models have come to inform much theorizing and research on the U.S.
Supreme Court. However, we argue that judicial preferences vary considerably
across areas of the law, and that limitations in our ability to measure those
preferences have constrained the set of questions scholars pursue. We introduce
a new approach, which makes use of information about substantive similarity
among cases, to estimate judicial preferences that vary across substantive
legal issues and over time. We show that a model allowing preferences to vary
over substantive issues as well as over time is a significantly better
predictor of judicial behavior than one that only allows preferences to vary
over time. We find that judicial preferences are not reducible to simple
left-right ideology and, as a consequence, there is substantial variation in
the identity of the median justice across areas of the law during all periods
of the modern court. These results suggest a need to reconsider empirical and
theoretical research that hinges on the existence of a single pivotal median
justice.
Abstract: The
trends in public support for same-sex marriage should interest both those
concerned about public attitudes toward gay rights and those with a larger
interest in the way court decisions help shape public opinion. The political
and legal dynamics of the same-sex marriage debate, as well as the public
opinion response, are unique. Nevertheless, analogies to other legal contexts,
such as abortion, desegregation and interracial marriage, help define the
stakes in this debate and the potential directions in which public opinion may
turn. Our own research, as spelled out in our book Public Opinion and
Constitutional Controversy (Oxford 2008), suggests that the public is growing
increasingly more amenable to same-sex marriage and that judicial decisions are
unlikely to reverse that trend.
Abstract: In the
Supreme Court’s most closely divided cases, one pivotal justice can determine
the outcome. Given this fact, judicial scholars have paid substantial attention
to the swing justice. This article makes two theoretical contributions to the
study of the swing justice and this justice’s resulting influence on case
outcomes. First, we show that in a substantial number of cases, the justice
that casts the pivotal vote is not the median justice on the Court. Second, we
argue that the swing justice will typically rely less on attitudinal
considerations and more on strategic and legal considerations than the other
justices on the Court. The analysis suggests that even among the Court’s most
closely divided decisions, which are typically thought to reflect the Court’s
most ideologically driven outcomes, the pivotal swing vote is significantly
less likely to reflect attitudinal predispositions and more likely to reflect
strategic considerations, such as the public’s preferences, and case-specific
considerations such as the position advocated by the Solicitor General. The
theory and findings suggest that a failure to consider the unique behavior of a
pivotal actor—whether on the Supreme Court or any other decision-making
body—can lead to incorrect conclusions about the determinants of policy
outputs.
Abstract: Legal
clarity is important to understand and measure because of its connection to the
rule of law. We provide the first systematic examination of the clarity of
Supreme Court opinions and discover five important results. First, certain
justices systematically craft clearer opinions than others. Justices Scalia and
Breyer write the clearest opinions, while Justice Ginsburg consistently writes
the most complex opinions. Second, ideology does not predict clarity in majority
or concurring opinions. Third, all justices write clearer dissents than majority
opinions, while minimum winning coalitions produce the clearest majority
opinions. Fourth, justices across the board write clearer opinions in criminal
procedure cases than in any other issue area. Finally, opinions that formally
alter Court precedent render less clear law, potentially leading to a cycle of
legal ambiguity.
Abstract: The
theoretical and empirical debate over the ability of the U.S. Supreme Court to
influence public opinion through its decisions is far from settled. Scholars
have examined the question using a variety of theoretical perspectives and
empirical evidence, but there is no theoretical consensus, nor are the
empirical studies without methodological weaknesses. We enter this debate in an
attempt to bring some clarity to the theoretical approaches, overcome some of
the methodological shortcomings, and bring a yet unstudied issue area, Court
decisions on gay civil rights, under scrutiny. We argue that the ability of
Court decisions to influence public opinion is a function of the salience of
the issue, the political context, and case specific factors at the aggregate
level. At the individual level these factors are also relevant, but citizen characteristics
must also be taken into consideration. Our analysis of aggregate level and
individual level opinion does indeed suggest that Court decisions can influence
public opinion. However, the ability of Court decisions to influence public
opinion is conditional. Our findings lend support to the legitimation
hypothesis and the structural effects model. We conclude with a discussion of
the implications of our findings and suggestions for future research.
Abstract: This
article is a first attempt to develop and assess the competing predictions of
the thermostatic model of public opinion and legitimation theory for the
responses of public mood to Supreme Court decisions. While the thermostatic
model predicts a negative relationship between the ideological direction of
Supreme Court decisions and changes in public mood, legitimation theory
predicts that changes in mood should be positively associated with the
ideological content of the Court's actions. I assess these rival expectations
by modeling the dynamic relationship between mood and cumulative judicial
liberalism. The model estimates indicate a complex interaction between the
Court and the mass public characterized by short-term backlash against Supreme
Court decisions in mood followed by long-run movement toward the ideological
positions taken by the Court. The results emphasize the legitimacy of the Court
in American politics and point to a unique role for the Court in shaping public
opinion.
“The
Supreme Court and Issue Attention: The Case of Homosexuality”
by Joseph Daniel Ura
Political Communication (2009)
Abstract: Previous
studies have shown that a small number of Supreme Court decisions that
“rearrange[d] the … distribution of political benefits” have drawn the media's
attention to the underlying issues involved in those cases. This article
provides an additional test of that empirical claim, examining the effects of
the Supreme Court's gay rights cases on media coverage of homosexuality from
1990 to 2005. The data indicate that Supreme Court decisions that expanded the
scope of gay rights increased coverage of homosexuality in both The New York Times and USA Today, while cases that affirmed the
existing scope of gay rights had no such effect.