tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4476830200670484054.post3402817785969152458..comments2022-08-30T07:33:39.702-07:00Comments on Pipes and Theories: Web Searches and the Iowa Caucus: UpdateJoe Urahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09192732977958696956noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4476830200670484054.post-22824625187225401702012-01-03T13:39:41.950-08:002012-01-03T13:39:41.950-08:00Last update from Google up to January the 2nd
htt...Last update from Google up to January the 2nd<br /><br />http://www.google.com/insights/search/?hl=en-GB#q=%22ron%20paul%22%2Cbachmann%2Bhuntsman%2B%22rick%20perry%22%2Cromney%2Cgingrich%2Csantorum&geo=US-IA&date=today%201-m&cmpt=q<br /><br />For the first place, it is now a race between Paul, Romney and Santorum. If I had to choose, I would say Paul as 1st,Santorum as 2nd and Romney as 3rd.Gigi_Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02824121876405075718noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4476830200670484054.post-80183535358784368402012-01-03T12:07:51.681-08:002012-01-03T12:07:51.681-08:00I had a couple of minutes today to look at the Iow...I had a couple of minutes today to look at the Iowa caucus in 2008 and the Google data back then: considering the last 5 days before the primaries and the simple 3-days moving averages in those days, I found that the median ratio between the Google data for Ron Paul and the final result for him was approx 0.5, while the median ratio between the Google data for Mitt Romney and the final result for him was approx 1.1:<br /><br />http://www.google.com/insights/search/?hl=en-GB#q=%22ron%20paul%22%2CHuckabee%2Cromney%2CThompson%2CMcCain%2Bgiuliani%2Bhunter&geo=US-IA&date=12%2F2007%202m&cmpt=q<br /><br /> If we apply these corrections data to the current Google data, Ron Paul would be close to 20% , while Romney to 18%. This would also mean that Santorum and the rest would take a lot more votes.<br /><br />While this can be absolutely possible, the situation today is somewhat different than in 2008:<br /><br />- the internet penetration was smaller back then<br /><br />- If we look at the Google data, Huckabee was always in the first positions, if not the first. Moreover, in the final week he was in front.<br />This is not the case today for Santorum or other candidates.<br /><br />- Comparing the Google data today and in 2008, Romney is weaker today than in 2008, while the reverse is true for Paul, which has (almost) always been in front of the group of candidates.<br /><br />Anyway,let's way and see.Gigi_Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02824121876405075718noreply@blogger.com